9 October 2023
FARGO — After four months of campaigning, millions of dollars on advertising and two debate appearances, Doug Burgum’s presidential campaign presses on with little sign of breaking through.
The North Dakota governor continues to lag behind virtually all of the other candidates in national polls, with an average of less than 1% support. His peak was 3% in one late September poll, but he hasn’t repeated that success in the following weeks.
Candidates at the rear of the pack will often say it’s the voters who choose the presidential nominee, not polls. But single-percent support levels are not typically predictors of electoral success, and in a typical election, it’s often around this time the field starts becoming significantly less crowded.
So with another four months until the official kickoff for the GOP presidential primaries, what’s next for the North Dakota governor’s presidential campaign?
If you ask Burgum, it’s steaming ahead to the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary in February.
If you ask longtime political observers, candidates with Burgum’s level of support are usually beginning to drop out of the race in the fall ahead of an election year. And sometimes, such as in the case of former Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker in 2015 and former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty in 2011, they’ve already thrown in the towel.
University of Minnesota political studies chair Larry Jacobs, who has published extensively on presidential politics, elections and public opinion, said it’s likely Burgum will drop out in the next month or so if he follows the typical pattern of presidential candidates.
“Usually, the candidates who are doing well, they’re already starting to show signs of picking up support,” he said. “But for someone so far back in the pack, there needs to be a kind of a compelling moment, and he’s had his shots at those compelling moments. It’s just not breaking through.”
A “breakthrough” moment has so far eluded Burgum, despite two major opportunities in nationally televised debates.
Burgum’s first debate appearance in August gave the governor his first opportunity to contrast himself with seven other candidates before an audience of millions, but he got less airtime than his better-known opponents and was only able to get a few campaign talking points across.
Clashes ended up dominating the evening as candidates such as former Vice President Mike Pence and former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie took aim at political newcomer businessman Vivek Ramaswamy. That left little room for the sober, issues-focused discussion Burgum says he prefers to the “noise” and soundbite-seeking behavior of other candidates.
Even though he earned praise for standing for all two hours of the debate with a torn Achilles tendon from a basketball injury the night before, Burgum did not get a moment to distinguish himself, as the polling showed afterward. He still hovered in the 1% range weeks later.
Burgum shared the stage with a slightly smaller field of six other candidates in the second debate on Sept. 27 but got even less airtime than he did in the first. Hosts didn’t ask him a single question until nearly the 45-minute mark of the 2-hour debate, and cross-talk again dominated the evening.
Burgum attempted to insert himself into more conversations and even joined his other candidates in interrupting moderators to get heard, but the change in approach didn’t move the needle. His polling has remained steadily around 1% ever since.
‘It gets very, very expensive’
It’s already been a challenge for Burgum to hit the polling requirements to qualify for the debates. He hit the 3% requirement for the second debate just days before the event, and the third debate in Miami on Nov. 8 will require 4% support.
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and Ramaswamy have asked the Republican National Committee to boost the qualification requirements to further narrow down the field, ABC News reported. The RNC hasn’t announced any plans to make changes.
Viability is bound to weigh on the minds of major GOP donors as they look for a candidate to back in 2024 — especially if they hope to find a candidate who has any chance at all of facing former President Donald Trump in the primary.
Trump holds an enduring lead over all other GOP hopefuls in the polls, with more than half of Republican primary voters saying they’d support the former president in 2024. Whoever thinks they can beat him will need a lot of money.
Burgum spent more than $10 million of his own money to kickstart his campaign, and an independent group buying ads in his support has spent at least $15 million, according to the most recently available campaign finance reports. But the governor’s deep pockets from his time as a software business executive and entrepreneur will only get his campaign so far in a country where presidential candidates are spending close to $1 billion in an election cycle.
Running for office isn’t cheap, and it only gets more expensive as the primaries begin. While it’s possible for a political candidate to self-fund, costs can start to balloon as voters actually begin to hit the polls in the early states and beyond.
“It gets very, very expensive once he gets to the climax, and it will be humiliating for him if he’s running and receiving virtually no support,” Jacobs said. “That’s what it looks like he’s heading for right now.”
Later this month, fundraising reports from the Federal Election Commission will shed light on which candidates are raising the most money. It’ll provide insight into which candidate — if any — major GOP donors are coalescing behind to challenge Trump.
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