11 October 2023
The father of USC quarterback Caleb Williams made some interesting comments in a magazine interview, leading to questions about the projected top draft pick’s options. What could that mean for the Chicago Bears?
And injuries still are affecting the Bears lineup. What is the latest on Lucas Patrick, Darnell Mooney and Braxton Jones? Brad Biggs answers questions each week in his Bears mailbag.
What if Caleb Williams refuses to come to Chicago? I’ve seen some reports that say he and his father are putting the word out they would refuse to sign if drafted by the Bears. — Jim Foley, Aiken, S.C.
Talk about a doomsday predicament. Can you imagine if the Bears wound up in position to add potentially the best draft-eligible quarterback since Andrew Luck in 2012 — or perhaps longer — and he opted to remain at USC?
For starters, it’s important to note that, to my knowledge, neither Williams nor his father, Carl, has said anything specifically about the Bears — or any other team. What has generated a fair amount of buzz, however, are comments Carl made in a GQ profile of his son.
“The funky thing about the NFL draft process is, he’d almost be better off not being drafted than being drafted first,” Carl said. “The system is completely backward. The way the system is constructed, you go to the worst possible situation. The worst possible team, the worst organization in the league — because of their desire for parity — gets the first pick. So it’s the gift and the curse.
“I mean, I’ve talked to Archie Manning — his career was shot because he went to a horrible organization. I’ve talked to Lincoln (Riley), and Kyler (Murray) struggled because of where he was drafted. Baker (Mayfield) struggled mightily because of where he was drafted. The organizations matter.
“He’s got two shots at the apple. So if there’s not a good situation, the truth is, he can come back to school.”
There’s a lot to digest here, and certainly Williams could choose to remain in school for another year and delay the start of his NFL career until 2025. Carl is correct that his son might be better off if he isn’t selected by a team holding the No. 1 pick. The Kansas City Chiefs traded up from No. 27 to select Patrick Mahomes at No. 10 in 2017. Mahomes was instantly in an immeasurably better situation than Mitch Trubisky was with the Bears, who moved up from No. 3 to No. 2 to select him. Mahomes joined a playoff roster with a quarterback he could learn behind in Alex Smith. Trubisky joined a 3-13 team that had Mike Glennon at quarterback and a coach in John Fox who was entering a win-or-else season.
Carl Williams can bemoan the way the NFL distributes players via the draft system, but the league can point to its measures to promote competitive balance as a big reason for its immense popularity. There’s no question about that.
Reality is the team holding the No. 1 pick in 2024 likely will have a poor roster. The same can be said for the team drafting No. 1 in 2025. Williams should make whatever team he joins a lot better — and quickly — but a lot of work will need to be done. That’s one reason people I have chatted with around the league — who have no link to Williams’ inner circle — believe it’s unlikely he remains in school for a third season with the Trojans after one at Oklahoma. There’s little chance the team picking first in 2025 would be much more appealing than the team in that position in April. It could be a worse roster, coaching and ownership situation in 2025.
The second reason these folks give — and probably the more compelling one — is the longer Williams waits to join the NFL, the longer it would take to earn a second contract, and that’s where the HUGE paydays are for quarterbacks who strike it big. Jalen Hurts’ second contract with the Philadelphia Eagles guarantees him $180 million, Justin Herbert got $218 million guaranteed from the Los Angeles Chargers and Joe Burrow received $219 million from the Cincinnati Bengals. If Williams enters the NFL in 2024, he would be eligible for a second contract as early as 2027. The going rate for guarantees in quarterback contracts could be close to $300 million by then. Burrow’s deal averages $55 million per year. It’s almost certain that number will be north of $60 million by 2027.
Yes, Williams can make a lot of money at USC with name, image and likeness (NIL) deals, and some of that was detailed in the GQ article. But that’s a small fraction of what a second NFL contract would mean, and his endorsement possibilities as a pro also would be expanded.
Williams and his family will have a decision to make at the end of this college season, but it seems unlikely he would opt to remain in school. There’s one other possible play: He could inform a team he won’t sign with it if drafted. Recall that Eli Manning did that in 2004 when the San Diego Chargers had the first pick.
“It was my decision having talked with my agent (Tom Condon), coaches, (general managers) and owners,” Manning said in 2021 on a podcast with Kyle Brandt. “Going through the draft process, I was just worried about the Chargers organization at the time. I felt it was the right decision and I had a little pull. I quietly tried to say, ‘Hey, please don’t draft me, it can be our secret,’ and they didn’t keep the secret part very well.”
Condon also represented Chargers coach Marty Schottenheimer and quarterback Drew Brees at the time, so it’s fair to wonder about a conflict of interest. But those happen with more regularity than you might think. The Chargers drafted Manning and less than an hour later swapped him to the New York Giants, who had selected quarterback Philip Rivers at No. 4.
The Williams family no doubt could put together a compelling reason to avoid the Bears. No other franchise has been as inept when it comes to quarterback play, but this would be the nuclear option.
How many wins would it take for you to say the Bears have turned a corner? If not wins, what other markers would you use? — @caljestice
I get the sense your feeling for the Bears has shifted quicker than the change in weather this week. It would take more than one win against a Washington Commanders defense that has been gashed four consecutive weeks for me to feel like the Bears are even approaching a turn. But with some good fortune and continued improved play, yes, we could look back at the 40-20 victory at FedEx Field as the beginning of a turnaround.
The schedule sets up nicely for the Bears too. Their next two games, both at Soldier Field, come against the 1-4 Minnesota Vikings and the Las Vegas Raiders, who are 2-3 after a sloppy victory over the Green Bay Packers on Monday night. After that it’s back-to-back road games against the Los Angeles Chargers (2-2) and New Orleans Saints (3-2) and then a home date with the Carolina Panthers (0-5) that will have huge ramifications for the 2024 first-round pick that the Bears acquired from the Panthers. That’s not exactly murderers’ row.
I don’t think there is any other way to judge progress than victories. You can look for improvements by Justin Fields and the offense, and that is important. The defense can make some gains, especially if it can build off a five-sack performance against the Commanders and continue to generate takeaways. The Bears were plus-2 in turnovers Thursday — only the fourth time in the last 15 games they’ve been on the plus side. But it’s misleading to judge progress by any other marker than victories. They need to start chasing .500 to believe things are really on the upswing.
Who will have more pressure on them the rest of the way, Luke Getsy or Justin Fields? — @friis311
This doesn’t have to be an A or B question. I know for a fact both would tell you they feel pressure, in a good way, to do their job as well as they can every week. Why should one feel a greater burden than the other?
From a practical standpoint, Fields is in a critical year in his career. Year 3 is defining for a lot of players and is a particularly big deal for quarterbacks. Coming off a big game at Washington with 12 games remaining in the season, Fields has a chance to step forward. Getsy is 39 — still young in his coaching career — but I don’t think he would say that makes him feel any less pressure than Fields.
With Chase Claypool gone, will Tyler Scott see the field more? — @legendzombie
Eventually, I believe Scott will have an opportunity for more playing time. But Equanimeous St. Brown received the vast majority of snaps that would have gone to Claypool in the previous two games. The Bears also had an uptick in snaps with only two wide receivers on the field, instead going with multiple tight ends or fullback Khari Blasingame in the backfield. St. Brown got 66 snaps the last two weeks. Scott, a fourth-round pick from Cincinnati, has played 64 snaps over the first five games, getting between 10 and 15 each week.
You have to consider that Claypool and Scott are very different receivers in terms of body size, strengths and weaknesses. So you don’t immediately turn to Scott and say, “There’s the guy to plug in.” The Bears may need to tweak what they’re doing a little bit in 11 personnel (one running back, one tight end and three wide receivers) to boost his playing time unless Scott all of a sudden starts eating into another wideout’s playing time.
You were pretty definitive in your last mailbag that Justin Fields will not be the Bears QB in 2024. Realizing it’s only one week later, did the game vs. Washington do anything to change your mind? — @hickeymj
There was a handful of similar questions this week, with several readers wondering if it’s a foregone conclusion the Bears would select a quarterback if they wind up with the No. 1 pick. If the draft were based on the current standings, the Bears would be in that position as the Panthers are the only winless team. There are six 1-4 teams, including the Bears and their Week 6 opponent, the Vikings.
The question a week ago asked if there’s a way Fields could solidify himself as the starter for next season in a scenario in which the Bears didn’t gain the No. 1 pick on their own but landed the coveted selection from the Panthers.
My opinion was that would require a dramatic series of events, starting with Fields going on a heater. Credit Fields with a terrific outing in the demolition of the Commanders. His passing statistics from the last two games are better than they’ve ever been. The two fourth-quarter turnovers in the loss to the Denver Broncos are the only blemishes.
If this is the beginning of extended improved play for Fields, there’s no question he would enhance his standing for 2024 and beyond. We’re talking about a very small sample size for a quarterback with 30 career starts and a 6-24 record. The Bears and a lot of other teams would be intrigued by Fields if he continues to perform better from the pocket with the passing volume significantly up from last season.
I’m not going to be a flip-flop artist after one game, so, no, the four-touchdown effort against the Commanders doesn’t shift my thinking. Plus, I don’t see any way the Bears would pass on Caleb Williams at No. 1 if he continues to play well and is regarded as a once-in-a-decade talent. For an organization that has been wandering for more than seven decades in search of a franchise quarterback, that would strike me as GM (and ownership) malpractice.
The upside for Fields is he appeared more settled in the pocket the last two games. The offensive line performed better. The Bears have the running game going, and the offensive coordinator and quarterback seem comfortable feeding the ball to DJ Moore a lot. With 12 games remaining, there’s no reason to put a ceiling on what Fields can accomplish before the end of the season.
Any news on Braxton Jones? — @stephenclapp1
Jones has at least one more week on injured reserve with his neck issue. It sounds possible he would be back for Week 7 against the Raiders at Soldier Field. Rest and rehab were prescribed for Jones, so the hope is it’s nothing serious.
The good news is Larry Borom has played pretty well in Jones’ absence, a nice development for the Bears. It’s a small sample size, but Borom looks much improved from a year ago. We’ll see if the Bears start the 21-day window for Jones to return to practice next week.
Darnell Mooney is playing obviously but he doesn’t look like he is back to pre-injury form. Is he just rusty? — @rradulski
To the best of my knowledge, Mooney is fully healthy. I think what you’re seeing is he’s in a new role. He’s no longer the No. 1 receiver, and if we’re being honest, he was miscast in that position. He was the Bears’ best receiver before DJ Moore arrived.
There were two opportunities for explosive plays last week at Washington, and Justin Fields missed him on both. On a deep shot off a play fake on the first play of the game, Mooney had a step and they didn’t connect. On the second possession, Mooney was open on a deep over and Fields was off the mark. If they hit those two plays, you’re looking at 60 yards, maybe more.
Mooney had seven targets in the season opener and has only nine over the last four games. The passing volume was down in some of those games. I’m pretty certain we will see Mooney making some big plays, especially with defenses intent on not making the mistakes the Commanders did in attempting to cover Moore.
How is Lucas Patrick? What will the O-line look like if he can’t go? — @bfukuda
Matt Eberflus said Monday that the Bears had players — plural — who remained in concussion protocol. That would lead you to believe Patrick and running back Roschon Johnson are those players.
Patrick probably was headed out of the lineup this week anyway, provided left guard Teven Jenkins is set to play an entire game. The Bears planned to rotate Cody Whitehair and Jenkins at left guard last week at Washington — and that’s how things started — until Patrick left the game and Whitehair had to shift to center. The Bears didn’t rotate Jenkins and Patrick because you don’t want to be swapping out centers during a game unless you have to.
I think the preseason plan for the interior — Jenkins, Whitehair and Nate Davis from left to right — is what you will get moving forward, provided all are healthy.
()