18 October 2023
After acquiring Pablo López in January via trade, the Twins headed into the 2023 season believing they had assembled a strong starting pitching staff with enough depth to sustain them even with inevitable injuries along the way.
They were proven correct.
The Twins were carried to a division title in large part by their starting pitching, which had a collective 3.82 earned-run average, a mark that was second in the major leagues and first in the American League. López and Sonny Gray, both all-stars this year, topped a rotation that was one of the Twins’ best in recent memory.
2023 RECAP
The Twins came into spring training with six starting pitchers — López, Gray, Joe Ryan, Tyler Mahle, Kenta Maeda and Bailey Ober — competing for five spots in the rotation.
Ober was optioned to Triple-A St. Paul to begin the year, but he wasn’t there long — April injuries on consecutive days to Maeda and Mahle opened the door for Ober and rookie Louie Varland to step into the rotation. Mahle’s injury wound up being season-ending — he had Tommy John surgery — but the Twins were set up to withstand that.
Ober slid into the rotation and posted a 3.43 earned-run average in 26 starts. He threw 144 1/3 innings during the regular season, a mark well past his previous career high. The Twins sent him back to Triple-A at one point in late August to help manage his workload before a September return.
Maeda missed about two months of the season but came back, and in his first season after Tommy John surgery, wound up posting a 4.23 ERA. For 11 straight starts during the middle of the season, he did not give up more than three runs in a game.
Ryan dealt with an injury of his own — a groin strain that he tried to pitch through without notifying the staff for seven starts — though he pitched like an all-star during the first half of the year and finished the season with a 4.51 ERA in 29 starts.
Gray, who is sure to receive some votes on Cy Young Award ballots, made every start, finishing with a sub-3.00 ERA (2.79), the lowest for him since 2015. He led all Twins players in bWAR (Wins Above Replacement, per Baseball Reference) at 5.3.
López was tied for second on the team in bWAR for a season in which he also made every start, struck out 234 batters in 194 innings with a 3.66 ERA in the regular season, while giving up one run in 12 2/3 innings of postseason play and leading the Twins to their first playoff win since 2004.
Beyond that group, Varland (10 starts) and veteran Dallas Keuchel (six) were the only other pitchers to make multiple starts.
2024 OUTLOOK
López will be the ace of the Twins’ rotation next year and in the near future after they signed him to a contract extension in April that keeps him in the Twin Cities through 2027. He’ll be joined by Ryan, Ober and Chris Paddack, who made his return from a second Tommy John surgery near the end of the season, pitching out of the bullpen.
The Twins are expected to give Gray a qualifying offer, a one-year deal likely to be worth around $20 million, though the veteran most likely will decline it and test the waters of free agency. Like Gray, Maeda is also a free agent (as are Mahle and Keuchel).
That means the Twins will need to fill one rotation spot this offseason. And while there are some internal options, like Varland, whom the Twins shifted to the bullpen late in 2023 to great success, they would need to look externally to find someone close to Gray’s level of production.
“That’s a good group to start with, but it doesn’t mean we’re not going to think about ways to get better,” Twins president of baseball operations Derek Falvey said. “Can’t say that just yet, but I would say we’ll see where the process takes us.”
This is the first in a series of stories recapping the 2023 season and looking ahead to 2024.
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