Timberwolves’ chances of advancing in in-season tournament are slim. But here’s how it could happen

After falling to Sacramento at home on Saturday, Minnesota’s hopes of advancing in the NBA’s inaugural in-season tournament are in shambles.

That’s an interesting spot to be in considering the Timberwolves are 2-1 in group play and can improve to 3-1 with a victory Tuesday over Oklahoma City.

But only eight of the NBA’s 30 teams reach the in-season tournament quarterfinals. You have two paths to advancing to that point: You can win your group or claim your conference’s one wildcard spot.

The Timberwolves would have clinched Group C with a win Saturday over the Kings. Because Sacramento won that game, the Kings are in the driver’s seat in the group. If the Kings beat Golden State on Tuesday — and they’ll be favored to do so — they’ll win the group outright.

If they lose to the Warriors, the door cracks open for the Timberwolves.

If Golden State beats Sacramento and Minnesota beats the Thunder, the Warriors, Timberwolves and Kings would all finish 3-1 in group play, and all three teams would have beaten each other.

The next tiebreaker is point differential. That does not favor Minnesota. The Kings have outscored their opponents by 29 points in in-season tournament play. The Warriors have outscored opponents by five, and Minnesota has been outscored by three.

So Minnesota needs to eclipse both of those teams, who are playing each other, in point differential. That’s why Sacramento’s 4-0 run over the final 20 seconds of Saturday’s already decided game — capped by a buzzer-beating layup by De’Aaron Fox — mattered and further damaged the Timberwolves’ in-season tournament hopes.

Timberwolves coach Chris Finch has coached internationally, so he is accustomed to point differential and the game play that comes with it. But it’s clear his team, and even Wolves fans, were not.

“It’s weird for the sportsmanship of the game right now. It is what it is,” Finch said. “Those are the rules. We gotta play by them. Gotta try to tighten up the game at the end, give yourselves a chance if it comes down to point differential.”

The most likely outcome for the Timberwolves to achieve advancement is to beat the Thunder — currently No. 2 in the Western Conference standings, right behind Minnesota — by 21 points on Tuesday, while having the Warriors beat the Kings by 12.

But in that same scenario, if Golden State beat Sacramento by even 14, the Warriors would win the group. The more Minnesota can beat Oklahoma City by, the more doors open up for the Wolves. But the chances are certainly slim.

What about the wildcard spot, you ask? Well, Phoenix is currently the clubhouse leader for that spot. The Suns have finished group play at 3-1 — losing its group to the 4-0 Lakers — and Phoenix has a point differential of plus-34. So Minnesota would have to beat the Thunder by at least 37 to claim that spot.

Knowing all that, the Timberwolves’ chances of moving on are slim to none. But even that may not be the worst thing for Minnesota. The in-season tournament is a fun concept, but the Wolves are chasing bigger and better things.

Now, instead of playing in the winner’s bracket, they’ll play two consolation games — one at home and one on the road — against other teams that did not advance. A quick glance at Western Conference teams they were originally slated to play only three times this season suggests those consolation games could be at home against either Houston or Memphis, and on the road against San Antonio or Golden State.

If Minnesota gets two extra wins against the Spurs and Grizzlies in early December, that count just as much toward their final record as in-season winner’s bracket results, the Wolves could be better for it come season’s end.

And while players seemed excited about their in-season tournament success while winning their first two group-play games, there didn’t seem to be too many hurt feelings in the locker room after the loss to the Kings. In its first edition, the tournament hasn’t yet built up any cache, so it still carries a gimmicky vibe.

Though certainly if Minnesota could manage to squeak into the quarterfinals via a wild sequence of results Tuesday, the Timberwolves would take it.

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