13 April 2024
At first glance, it’s quite confusing, to be certain.
This is the first time in NBA history that three teams are tied atop the conference standings with one game to play. Denver, Minnesota and Oklahoma City are all 56-25.
The Thunder are currently the No. 1 seed, while Minnesota is No. 2 and Denver is No. 3.
That’s the case, even though Minnesota has the head-to-head tiebreakers with both Oklahoma City and Denver. The Wolves split the season series with each of the two Northwest division rivals 2-2, but Minnesota owns a better division record than Denver and has the same division record as Oklahoma City, but a better Western Conference record than the Thunder.
So how, might you ask, do the Thunder win a three-way tie?
Because the first tiebreaker in that instance is record versus the other two teams. Oklahoma City won the season series versus Denver, 3-1. So the Thunder are 5-3 versus the other two teams, while Minnesota is 4-4 and Denver is 3-5.
So if the three teams remain tied after Sunday’s regular season finales, the Thunder are the No. 1 seed, and Minnesota is No. 2.
But, if Minnesota is in a two-way tie with either team atop the standings, the Wolves will be the No. 1 seed.
Clear as mud, correct? Frankly, that’s the case for the entire Western Conference playoff picture heading into Sunday’s bouts.
Dallas is already locked into the fifth seed and will meet the fourth-seeded Clippers in the first round of the West playoffs. Everything else is entirely fluid and dependent on the results of the following matchups:
Phoenix at Minnesota, 2:30 p.m.
Denver at Memphis, 2:30 p.m.
Dallas at Oklahoma City, 2:30 p.m.
Lakers at New Orleans, 2:30 p.m.
Utah at Golden State, 2:30 p.m.
Portland at Sacramento: 2:30 p.m.
For Minnesota to grab the No. 1 seed, it needs to beat Phoenix and have Oklahoma City and/or Denver lose. It’s unlikely, as Oklahoma City and Denver will be heavy favorites on Sunday, but as Denver’s loss to San Antonio showed on Friday, anything can happen.
If the Wolves beat Phoenix, the lowest they can be seeded is No. 2.
If Minnesota loses to Phoenix, the Timberwolves will likely fall to the No. 3 seed.
Here are the most likely playoff scenarios for the Timberwolves depending on Sunday’s events (which — for the sake of brevity and sanity — will all assume victories by Sacramento and Golden State, who will also be heavy favorites on Sunday. Their results can only impact seeds No. 8-10)
SCENARIO 1: Minnesota wins, New Orleans wins and Denver and Oklahoma City also win
-Minnesota would be the No. 2 seed and would play the winner of the Phoenix-Sacramento play-in game.
SCENARIO 2: Minnesota wins, the Lakers win and Denver and Oklahoma City also win
-Minnesota would be the No. 2 seed and would play the winner of the Phoenix-Lakers play-in game.
SCENARIO 3: Minnesota wins, New Orleans wins and Denver AND/OR Oklahoma City loses
-Minnesota would be the No. 1 seed and would play the winner of the final West play-in game (loser of Phoenix/Sacramento vs. winner of Lakers/Golden State)
SCENARIO 4: Minnesota wins, the Lakers win and Denver AND/OR Oklahoma City loses
-Minnesota would be the No. 1 seed and would play the winner of the final West play-in game (loser of Phoenix/Lakers vs. winner of Sacramento/Golden State)
SCENARIO 5: Minnesota loses, New Orleans wins and Denver and Oklahoma City also win
-Minnesota would be the No. 3 seed and play New Orleans in the first round
SCENARIO 6: Minnesota loses, the Lakers win and Denver and Oklahoma City also win
-Minnesota would be the No. 3 seed and play Phoenix in the first round
SCENARIO 7: Minnesota loses, New Orleans wins and Denver AND/OR Oklahoma City loses
-Minnesota would be the No. 2 seed and would play the winner of the Phoenix/Sacramento play-in game
SCENARIO 8: Minnesota loses, the Lakers win and Denver AND/OR Oklahoma City loses
-Minnesota would be the No. 2 seed and would play the winner of the New Orleans-Lakers play-in game