Be prepared for another hot and humid summer in Minnesota

As the summer begins to get into full swing, warmer and more humid days are on the horizon, say climate and weather scientists. 

Temperatures across Minnesota this summer are expected to be 30% to 40% higher than normal, according to a seasonal outlook issued by the National Weather Service earlier this month. The anticipated higher temperatures are in line with a trend that has shown rising temperatures year over year, said Senior Climatologist Kenny Blumenfeld with the Department of Natural Resources, but the increase is more gradual compared to how winters are warming.

“On average, winter is warming – depending on where you look and how you look at it – three to five times faster than summer,” Blumenfeld said. “So summer is warming, meaning a typical summer now is warmer than a typical summer 30, 50 or 100 years ago, but it’s just not as dramatically warm now compared to then like what we see with winters.”

The problem, Blumenfeld said, is that the dew point – which is how humidity is measured and refers to the temperature at which the air can hold no more water – is increasing more dramatically. Recent years have seen more and more spikes in dew point, and the combination of higher temperatures with higher humidity, known as the heat index, is what makes days feel hotter than they’ve ever been and can cause unsafe conditions.

Blumenfeld said Minnesota goes through dry and wet periods that can each last years at a time. The state has been afflicted by drier conditions during the past few years, leading to drought conditions that have caused issues for Minnesota farmers. 

Long term, however, conditions are getting gradually more wet. The 2010s were the wettest decade on record, capped off by the wettest single year on record in 2019, and dry conditions today look similar to wet conditions decades earlier. With rising global temperatures caused by climate change, increased moisture contributes to the higher humidity levels and more precipitation, Blumenfeld said. 

“As global temperatures increase, more water is evaporated off of the oceans. When water is evaporated off of the oceans, it goes into the air, water in the air is known as water vapor or humidity, and we experience it as humidity,” he said. “That’s actually the fuel for both our humidity driven heat waves – those hot muggy days that have become more common – and also for passing weather systems that use that moisture to generate precipitation.”

The higher humidity makes it more difficult for the human body to cool itself by sweating, which can lead to heat exhaustion or heat stroke. Alongside temperatures, the amount of heat-related deaths nationwide have been increasing every year, with just more than 1,600 in 2021, more than 1,722 in 2022 and about 2,300 in 2023, according to the Centers for Disease a control and Prevention. 

Jason Urbanczyk, a community engagement fellow for the Minnesota Coalition for the Homeless, said he sees many cases of heat exhaustion and other heat-related conditions in the summers during his advocacy work in Moorhead. 

“A lot of people think that with the encampments, only the wintertime is bad, but in terms of safety, the summertime is when things can get a lot worse,” he said. 

Urbanczyk said not much work has been done on the effects of climate change on unhoused populations and that his group will be studying the issue going forward. In the short-term, more funding for facilities where unhoused people can stay cool during heat waves can be a solution, he said, but housing should still be the long term goal. 

“Providing more places for people to be inside, that they’re going to be allowed to be inside without being hassled, because I’m sure you know how it is when people try to go in places and hang out and they’re unwelcome,” he said. “Other than that, the ultimate solution, of course, is to get more housing for people to get them off the streets and inside is really what we need.”

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