2 September 2023
The only player more likely to win a Rookie of the Year Award this year than Gunnar Henderson is playing against him this weekend.
Arizona Diamondbacks rookie Corbin Carroll is a shoo-in to win the award in the National League as perhaps one of the sport’s best outfielders. Henderson is also heavily favored to win the American League’s, and Friday night’s contest between the two wunderkinds put their talents on display.
“Carroll’s a good player,” manager Brandon Hyde said. “I’ve seen him play quite a bit this year [on television]. What an exciting, dynamic [player]. He’s going to be a really good outfielder in this league for a long time.
“How he runs and throws and the power he has, it’s pretty impressive — a little like our guy, too.”
Henderson went 2-for-4 and flashed the leather at shortstop with two double plays, while Carroll went 2-for-4 and displayed his blazing speed in Arizona’s 4-2 win over Baltimore. Both of Henderson’s double plays involved Carroll. The first, an over-the-shoulder catch that Henderson traversed 106 feet to catch, ended with Henderson throwing Carroll out at home plate. Two innings later, Henderson fielded a Carroll ground ball on the second base side of the bag, tagged the base and fired to first for the double play.
“He’s showing everybody why he’s Rookie of the Year,” manager Brandon Hyde said of Henderson. “It’s fun to watch him play right now.”
Henderson opened the season as the consensus No. 1 prospect in the sport and a significant front-runner to win AL Rookie of the Year. But the infielder got off to a slow start, hitting just .170 through his first 100 at-bats. By early June, he had just the seventh-best odds on FanDuel Sportsbook to win the award, but in the span of 10 days he hit two go-ahead home runs and a 462-foot shot onto Eutaw Street to burst out of his slump.
From June through August, Henderson slashed .279/.330/.537 — good for an .867 OPS — to re-emerge as the award’s front-runner. Entering Friday, Henderson was at minus-650 on FanDuel and Caesar’s Sportsbooks and -700 on DraftKings Sportsbook to win the award. He leads Baltimore in Baseball-Reference’s wins above replacement at 4.6 — more than a win better than any other Oriole — and is second in home runs, tied for second in RBIs and third in OPS.
The other rookies in the AL in the running are Boston’s Triston Casas and Masataka Yoshida, Texas’ Josh Jung and Cleveland’s Tanner Bibee, but all of them have long odds as the final month-plus of the regular season is underway.
While Henderson is the most likely Oriole to win an award this fall, he isn’t the only one with a chance. Here are the other Orioles in the running to win MLB awards.
Kyle Bradish — AL Cy Young
Earlier this summer, it was Félix Bautista who was getting buzz for the AL Cy Young Award as he fired his way through a historic season. But an injury to the ulnar collateral ligament in his elbow landed him on the injured list, potentially ending his season.
But Bradish, the best starting pitcher on the AL’s best team, also has an outside chance of winning the award. He has the ninth-best odds on FanDuel Sportsbook, but the race has no clear front-runner. And few starters in the AL have prevented runs at a better rate than Bradish, who is 9-6 with a 3.03 ERA and 1.107 WHIP.
The right-hander isn’t currently a qualified starter because of his IL stint in April and the Orioles operating under a six-man rotation over the past month. But the only AL starters with at least 130 innings pitched and a better ERA than Bradish are Minnesota’s Sonny Gray (2.92), New York’s Gerrit Cole (2.95) and Seattle’s Luis Castillo (3.01).
Bradish has gotten better as the season’s progressed, posting a 2.25 ERA in July and a 2.12 in August. While it’s unlikely, another great month from Bradish and poor performances from his contenders could vault him into contention. At the very least, if he maintains his recent performance, he’ll appear somewhere on the ballot.
Adley Rutschman — Silver Slugger
Only three primary catchers in the AL have enough plate appearances to be qualified. Rutschman’s .783 OPS is the highest among that group.
His 135 hits entering Friday were 22 more than the second-most, Kansas City’s Salvador Perez, while his .273 batting average is best among AL catchers with at least 90 total games played. His 72 walks are 27 more than any other backstop, and his 70 runs are also first at the position. He ranks third in doubles (22) and RBIs (62) and fourth in home runs (16).
His main competition for the recognition are Seattle’s Cal Raleigh (.776 OPS) and Texas’ Jonah Heim (.768).
Ryan O’Hearn — AL Comeback Player of the Year
Several players in the Junior Circuit will be up for this award, and O’Hearn should be one of them.
The 30-year-old spent the first five years of his career with the Kansas City Royals, mostly struggling as a left-handed bench bat. He hit .219 with a .683 OPS in his career with the Royals, including a paltry .611 OPS last year.
But the Orioles added O’Hearn in the offseason, invited him to spring training as a nonroster invitee, added him to their 26-man roster in April and then saw him blossom into one of their best hitters. Entering Friday, the first baseman was slashing .297/.332/.496 — good for an .828 OPS that leads the Orioles.
This award is often given to players returning from injury, but players with bounce-back seasons have also won.
Félix Bautista — Mariano Rivera AL Reliever of the Year
This might be an uphill battle for Bautista if he misses the final month-plus of the season, but it’s likely he will have a legitimate case.
Bautista’s 2.8 WAR, according to FanGraphs, is easily the best among MLB relievers this season. Entering Friday, the closest AL reliever to Bautista in the metric was Texas’ Aroldis Chapman at 1.7. Before his UCL injury, Bautista was 8-2 with a 1.48 ERA, 0.918 WHIP and 46.4% strikeout rate. The team has yet to say the extent to Bautista’s elbow injury and whether he’ll be able to return this season.
It’s also possible that Bautista’s teammate, Yennier Cano, wins the award. Also an All-Star, Cano owns a 1.56 ERA and has, for now, stepped in as Baltimore’s closer. Cano ranks third in the majors in WAR at 1.7.
The last Oriole to win the award was Zack Britton in 2016.
Brandon Hyde — AL Manager of the Year
If Henderson isn’t the most likely Oriole to win an award, it’s Hyde.
In a span of three years, Hyde has helped turn Baltimore from the AL’s worst team into its best. At 83-51, the Orioles have a 1 1/2-game lead of the Tampa Bay Rays atop the AL standings and are on pace to win 100 games for the first time since 1980.
The other AL managers in contention are Seattle’s Scott Servais, Texas’ Bruce Bochy and Tampa Bay’s Kevin Cash. Hyde was the runner-up for the award last season, losing to Cleveland’s Terry Francona. The last Orioles manager to win the award was Buck Showalter in 2014.
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