As Kyle Hendricks prepares for a pivotal start tonight, weak contact is the basis of his success for the Chicago Cubs

29 September 2023

The day before Kyle Hendricks’ final regular-season start, the Chicago Cubs’ veteran tried to recall the last time he took the mound for such a pivotal game so late into the 162-game schedule.

Hendricks figures it came in September 2019 when the Cubs tried to lock down a playoff spot, going from 14 games over .500 and in the final wild-card position with two weeks to go to missing the postseason thanks to a stretch of losing nine consecutive games.

After a disastrous three-game sweep in Atlanta, the Cubs turn to Hendricks with their postseason hopes on life support Friday in Milwaukee, where they close out their regular-season slate.

“This is what you play for,” Hendricks told the Tribune on Thursday. “You want to be winning and you’re in this game for one reason, and it’s to win. And so to have a group like this where you’re so close and to be able to win with them makes it even more special. To be in it now, we’re focused on the right here and right now.”

The Cubs are at the point of needing to sweep the Brewers over the weekend because they are a half-game behind the Miami Marlins for the No. 3 wild-card spot and the Marlins hold the tiebreaker.

“Big games he’s pitched in, his experience, so we’ll follow his lead,” Ian Happ said after their 5-3 loss Thursday night to get swept by the Braves.

Fortunately, the Cubs have seen a healthy Hendricks revert to more career norms than the struggles he experienced in 2021 and 2022. Last season was a particularly tough test trying to pitch through a right shoulder injury that ended his season in July.

This version of Hendricks, 33, is back to inducing ground balls at pre-2021 levels, and it has contributed to his success. Through 23 starts, his 45.2% GB% is his highest over a full season since 2018 while doing a great job of limiting hard contact. Hendricks’ 31.3% HardHit% is the lowest of his 10-year career, an important foundation to his 3.66 ERA and 122 ERA+.

“The ground-ball rate in general has to go back to my fastball command, the last couple years my fastball command was just elevated at the bottom of the zone about two balls higher for me than where I needed it to be so finally I’m getting back to angled, bottom of the zone,” Hendricks said. “Being healthy again has a lot to do with it, getting extension out front. I get the ball down and now my changeup works off that and I get guys to start fishing under the zone and that’s where ground balls are going to happen.”

The increase of ground balls has not correlated to his typical double-play frequency. He owned a 12% career DP% coming into the year and had been averaging 11 per season. Oddly, Hendricks has generated only one ground ball double play in 132 2/3 innings and 557 batters faced. That came way back on May 30 in his second start and just seven innings into his season.

“I would have never guessed that,” Hendricks said, chuckling.

Hendricks believes the lack of double plays is connected to the running game and how teams have been able to steal against him. He has allowed 23 stolen bases in 23 starts with only two caught stealing. Hendricks pointed to his early-season struggles in that area, putting it on himself for not giving catchers a reasonable chance to throw out base stealers or even make it a close play. The limitations on throwing over, just twice during plate appearances, take away a tool Hendricks previously had used to change the timing and tempo of a baserunner.

Over the course of the season, Hendricks has incorporated a slide step to try to baserunners in check. Sometimes that approach worked against him when he put too much attention on the runner at first base rather than the guy in the batter’s box. After his start Aug. 9 at Citi Field, Hendricks and manager David Ross noted how paying too much attention to Francisco Lindor and using a slide step in an effort to keep him close, affected his matchup with slugger Pete Alonso, which ended in a tying two-run homer.

Veterans are learning constantly, too, and Hendricks realized he needed to be better at playing the scoreboard and understanding where the Cubs were within a game. Quickening his leg kick from 1.6 to 1.4 seconds also has helped.

“If I know I have a guy over there that’s going to be going but it’s a one-run game per se, maybe that’s when I utilize my slide step and really try and focus on trying to keep him there,” Hendricks said. “If we have a lead up 4-0 or something like that, I need to focus on execution.”

Hendricks thinks he has gotten better over the last two to three weeks of controlling the run game. It continues to be a focal point for the right-hander.

“We’ve committed to the fact that depending on the runner, if it’s a speedster there, you just have to commit that he’s going to get to second probably and you’re going to have to make pitches with the guy on second base,” Hendricks said. “So that’s been the focus is just limiting the hard contact, especially with guys in scoring position there and doing as much as you can.

“It might be an anomaly because double plays have always been there … but yeah, that’s a very weird combo.”

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