3 October 2023
According to one metric, the two best teams in the American League are playing in the wild-card round this week. The winner will play the Orioles in the best-of-five American League Division Series beginning Saturday.
While Tampa Bay and Texas ended the regular season with records worse than the Orioles’ mark of 101-61, the Rays (99-63) and Rangers (90-72) sport run differentials much better than Baltimore’s.
The Orioles are tied with the Houston Astros for the circuit’s third-best run differential at plus-129, while the Rangers rank second at plus-165 behind the Rays’ plus-195. Those totals produce Pythagorean records, an estimate based solely on run differential, of 94-68 for Baltimore, 96-66 for Texas and 100-62 for Tampa Bay.
Of course, run differentials and a formula named after a Greek mathematician don’t decide ballgames. The Orioles went 8-5 against the Rays this season, failing to lose a series to their AL East foe, and 3-3 versus the Rangers in two series played before June.
However, after the marathon that is a 162-game season, run differential is oftentimes more predictive of future success than a team’s actual record.
Either way, the figures just go to prove that the Orioles will face a formidable opponent in the ALDS, whether the Rangers or Rays prove victorious in the best-of-three wild-card series.
But, if the Orioles could choose, which team would they prefer to play?
Ahead of Game 1 between the Rangers and Rays on Tuesday, here are the arguments for Baltimore fans rooting for either team to advance to play the Orioles in the ALDS.
Rangers
The argument for the Rangers being a better matchup for the Orioles is perhaps an easier one to make. Texas won nine fewer games and had a worse run differential than the Rays. The Rangers are, essentially, the weaker team.
Compared with the Rays, the Rangers have a worse starting rotation and a weaker bullpen. While their offense is better than Tampa Bay’s, it’s marginally so and doesn’t make up for the team’s deficiencies on the mound.
While the Orioles have fared well against top-line starting pitching this season, those hurlers have outsized importance in the postseason. One or two elite starters can lead a team to a series win, and the Rangers don’t have those.
Their success this season has been in spite of injuries to former Cy Young winners Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer, the latter of whom they acquired at the trade deadline. Jon Gray, a reliable starter in his second consecutive good year with the Rangers, is also on the injured list, although he could return for the ALDS.
That’s not to say, of course, that the Rangers have a bad rotation. Their starters’ combined 3.96 ERA is better than Baltimore’s 4.14. All-Star Nathan Eovaldi, left-hander Jordan Montgomery, Dane Dunning and manager Bruce Bochy’s choice for a fourth starter is far from an easy slate. But compared with AL Cy Young candidate Zach Eflin and fireballer Tyler Glasnow, the two right-handers at the top of Tampa Bay’s rotation, Texas’ might be the easier task.
Tampa Bay’s bullpen is also far better than Texas’. Despite a midseason addition of Aroldis Chapman, the Rangers’ relief corps has a 4.77 ERA this season that ranks 24th in the majors and worst among playoff teams. In September, the Rays’ bullpen had a streak of 36 1/3 consecutive scoreless innings, while Texas’ posted a 5.08 ERA.
The Rays are also playing perhaps their best baseball since their torrid 22-5 start. They went 27-13 since Aug. 16, while the Rangers are 18-24 during that same stretch.
Rays
The Orioles have already proved they can handle the Rays. They went 8-5 against Tampa Bay and won games in myriad ways — from comebacks to outdueling the Rays to outhitting them.
Like the Rangers, the Rays are also without several key pieces. Wander Franco, the Rays’ best player at just 22 years old, is still on administrative leave as Major League Baseball and the Dominican Republic investigate an alleged relationship between Franco and a minor. Ace Shane McClanahan, a two-time All-Star, is out after undergoing Tommy John elbow reconstruction in August. Starters Jeffrey Springs and Drew Rasmussen are also out for the year after undergoing elbow surgeries. Slugger Luke Raley, who hits in the middle of Tampa Bay’s order against right-handed starting pitchers, and former Terps standout Brandon Lowe, the Rays’ starting second baseman who replaced Franco in the No. 2 hole, are also on the IL.
Those absences make the Rays’ rotation less scary — having to face McClanahan, Springs, Eflin and Glasnow in the ALDS would be a tough obstacle for any team — while also making their lineup much less formidable than the Rangers.
What Texas might lack on the pitching side the club has more than made up for with the bats. The Rangers have the best offense in the AL with 881 runs scored, averaging 5.44 runs per game — nearly half a run more than the Orioles. Their lineup is bolstered by AL Most Valuable Player candidate Corey Seager, whose 1.013 OPS ranks second behind only the Los Angeles Angels’ Shohei Ohtani. Second baseman Marcus Semien has been one of baseball’s most valuable players in the majors with 7.4 wins above replacement, tied for fifth in the sport, according to Baseball-Reference. And slugger Adolis García leads the team with 39 homers and 107 RBIs.
Meanwhile, no player on the Orioles has an OPS within 198 points of Seager’s, a WAR within one win of Semien’s or a home run total within 10 of García’s. AL Rookie of the Year front-runner Gunnar Henderson is the closest with an .814 OPS, 6.3 WAR and 28 homers.
But the games aren’t played on paper, as the cliche goes. No matter who they play, the biggest determinant of whether the Orioles move onto the ALCS is themselves.
ALDS, Game 1
Rays/Rangers at Orioles
Saturday, TBA
TV: Fox or FS1
Radio: 97.9 FM, 101.5 FM, 1090 AM
()