5 October 2023
The Ravens overwhelmed a debuting quarterback to beat the Cleveland Browns, 28-3. The Pittsburgh Steelers played dismal offense in falling, 30-6, to the Houston Texans. Which team will have the advantage Sunday?
Ravens passing game vs. Steelers pass defense
Lamar Jackson played masterfully against a Cleveland Browns defense that had smothered its first three opponents, completing 15 of 19 passes for 186 yards and two touchdowns. He’s averaging a career-low 6.8 air yards per attempt but threw a pair of beautiful downfield passes, including a 43-yard, on-the-run strike to rookie wide receiver Zay Flowers that set up a touchdown. He’s completing a career-high 74.3% of his passes. Jackson worked without two of his top targets in Odell Beckham Jr. (ankle) and Rashod Bateman (hamstring) in Cleveland. Flowers (24 receptions on 29 targets, 224 yards) has been the team’s most prolific pass catcher. Tight end Mark Andrews appeared fully recovered from the quadriceps injury that kept him out of the season opener, catching a pair of touchdown passes and rumbling for a 36-yard catch-and-run against the Browns. Beckham and Bateman did practice Wednesday. Jackson’s pass protection is a concern, with starting tackles Ronnie Stanley (knee) and Morgan Moses (shoulder) battling injuries. Stanley was a full participant in practice Wednesday. The Ravens will rely on supplementary blockers such as fullback Patrick Ricard, Andrews and perhaps freshly signed tight end Eric Tomlinson to impede Pittsburgh’s elite edge rusher, T.J. Watt.
Watt has played at his typical All-Pro level, leading the Steelers with six sacks, 13 quarterback hits and two forced fumbles. Pittsburgh ranks 13th in pass DVOA after Texans rookie C.J. Stroud threw for 306 yards and two touchdowns on just 30 attempts in that 30-6 blowout. The Steelers blitz on a middling 27.9% of dropbacks. Safety Minkah Fitzpatrick remains their star playmaker in the secondary but has graded as average rather than excellent through four games, per Pro Football Focus. Houston’s top wide receiver, Nico Collins, torched the Steelers for 168 yards on seven catches, and Davante Adams caught 13 passes for 172 yards against them in their Week 3 win over the Las Vegas Raiders, so this would be a week for Flowers or Beckham (if he returns) to feast. The Steelers have made life difficult for Jackson, who has thrown six interceptions and taken 16 sacks in five career games against them.
EDGE: Ravens
Steelers passing game vs. Ravens pass defense
Quarterback Kenny Pickett exited the Texans game because of a knee bruise, meaning the Ravens could face backup Mitch Trubisky, whom they intercepted three times in a victory last December. Pickett, the Steelers’ 2022 first-round draft pick, has not played well, throwing four interceptions in four games for an offense that ranks 22nd in converting third downs and 28th in scoring touchdowns from the red zone. Pittsburgh ranks 30th in pass DVOA, signaling an overall lack of efficiency. Wide receiver George Pickens (16 catches on 30 targets, 263 yards) is a gifted, inconsistent top target, but the Steelers will be without tight end Pat Freiermuth (hamstring), one of their most reliable options on third down and in the red zone. Their pass protection has done Pickett no favors, with left guard Isaac Seumalo grading as the only above-average blocker, per Pro Football Focus.
The Ravens intercepted rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson three times and hit him eight times in their win over Cleveland. Their secondary, with Brandon Stephens filling in for Marlon Humphrey at cornerback and Geno Stone filling in for Marcus Williams at safety, has exceeded expectations. Williams (pectoral) practiced all of last week, so he could return against the Steelers. Coordinator Mike Macdonald showed an interest in using three-safety sets, with Kyle Hamilton playing closer to the line of scrimmage, before Williams was hurt. Macdonald has upped his blitz rate to 31.4% this year, and the Ravens rank fourth in the league with 15 sacks despite not having a dominant edge rusher. Freshly signed outside linebacker Kyle Van Noy stepped right in with four pressures in 23 snaps against Cleveland. Jadeveon Clowney has been the team’s most consistent pass rusher, with 1 1/2 sacks, five quarterback hits and 13 hurries. Linebackers Roquan Smith and Patrick Queen have terrorized quarterbacks, who’ve averaged a league-worst 3.7 yards per attempt against the Ravens, as blitzers.
EDGE: Ravens
Ravens running game vs. Steelers run defense
The Ravens turned to their running game to break the dam against Cleveland’s aggressive defense. Gus Edwards led the team with 48 yards on 15 carries, and Jackson scored two touchdowns, but it was Justice Hill’s return from a turf toe injury that gave the Ravens a different, outside dimension. He and Melvin Gordon III combined for 54 yards on six carries. Coordinator Todd Monken’s offense ranks fourth in rushing, averaging a solid 4.4 yards per carry. When the Ravens, without Jackson, beat the Steelers in Pittsburgh last season, power running was their weapon of choice.
The Steelers are off to a subpar start in this area, ranking 29th in run defense and allowing 4.7 yards per carry. The San Francisco 49ers ran for 188 yards against them in the season opener, and the Browns added 198 in Week 2. Pittsburgh misses defensive end Cameron Heyward, who’s on injured reserve. It doesn’t have a dominant interior run defender, and linebackers Kwon Alexander and Cole Holcomb have graded as merely decent, according to Pro Football Focus.
EDGE: Ravens
Steelers running game vs. Ravens run defense
The Steelers haven’t run well either, averaging just 3.6 yards per carry and ranking 31st in rush DVOA. Najee Harris (210 yards on 49 carries) remains their top option, while Jaylen Warren is a greater threat to catch passes out of the backfield. Pickett and Trubisky move well, though neither is a high-volume running threat, Pickett’s bruised knee could limit him even if he plays.
The Ravens have allowed too many double-digit gains outside the tackle, in part because they’re relying on inexperienced players such as Tavius Robinson and Jeremiah Moon to set the edges. They’ve been solid overall, limiting opponents to 3.8 yards per carry and ranking sixth in rush DVOA. Michael Pierce and Travis Jones have clogged interior running lanes, while Smith and Queen close on opposing ball carriers as quickly as any linebackers in the league.
EDGE: Ravens
Ravens special teams vs. Steelers special teams
The Ravens rank 26th in special teams DVOA, largely because of their poor punt coverage over the first three games. Punter Jordan Stout was excellent in Cleveland, dropping three inside the Browns’ 20-yard line. Thanks to the Ravens’ efficiency in the red zone, kicker Justin Tucker has made just four of six field goal attempts, with his misses coming from 59 and 61 yards.
The Steelers rank 16th in special teams DVOA. Kicker Chris Boswell had made all seven of his field goal attempts, three from beyond 50 yards. Punt returner Calvin Austin has been the weak link with just 30 yards on six returns.
EDGE: Even
Ravens intangibles vs. Steelers intangibles
The Ravens, already 2-0 in the division, know they’re in position to build a meaningful lead in the AFC North despite all their injuries in the first quarter of the season. They also know the Steelers are rarely pushovers, even when they seem to be struggling. John Harbaugh and Mike Tomlin are each other’s most enduring coaching rivals, with Harbaugh’s record at 15-18 in his career against Pittsburgh.
Tomlin promised changes after the Steelers’ decisive loss in Houston. They were also blown out by the 49ers, though they overcame their offensive woes to win close games against the Browns and Raiders. The Steelers are facing uncertainty at quarterback and cannot fall back on a dominant defense, but history says Tomlin will squeeze as much as he can from his roster by the end of the season.
EDGE: Ravens
Prediction
These teams played a 16-14 game and a 16-13 game last season, reminding us that it’s folly to pick a blowout either way in this rivalry. That said, the Ravens have the better quarterback, the better defense, better results against common opponents and a chance to build on their AFC North lead. They won’t allow Pittsburgh’s offense to get going and will turn to their running game to secure a rugged victory. Ravens 23, Steelers 16
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