12 October 2023
The Ravens lost, 17-10, to the Pittsburgh Steelers in a symphony of dropped passes, turnovers and blown chances. The Tennessee Titans gave up 193 rushing yards in a 23-16 loss to the Indianapolis Colts. Which team will have the advantage Sunday in London?
Ravens passing game vs. Titans pass defense
The loss to Pittsburgh featured one of the strangest Ravens offensive performances in recent memory. Lamar Jackson was Pro Football Focus’ highest-graded quarterback for the week but finished with a 65.2 passer rating and no touchdown throws as his team scored 10 points, none on its last nine drives. How does that happen? Jackson’s receivers let him down to an absurd degree, dropping anywhere from six to eight passes, depending on which analyst was charting. These were not inconsequential drops. Two were in the end zone and another two could have gone for touchdowns or put the Ravens on the cusp of the goal line. Wide receivers Rashod Bateman, Zay Flowers and Nelson Agholor and tight end Mark Andrews shared blame for this disaster. Jackson then tossed his worst pass of the day, an underthrown fade to Odell Beckham Jr., for an interception at the moment when he could have secured victory with a touchdown. His pass protection also faltered after Patrick Mekari, filling in for an injured Morgan Moses at right tackle, left early with a chest injury. Steelers outside linebacker Alex Highsmith beat left tackle Ronnie Stanley for a strip sack, Jackson’s league-leading seventh fumble of the season, to end the Ravens’ last real scoring chance. The good news for the Ravens is that Jackson is throwing as well as he ever has, all of his top targets seem likely to play against Tennessee, and Moses, Mekari and Stanley all practiced Wednesday.
They will face a struggling Tennessee pass defense that has allowed quarterbacks to average 6.8 yards per attempt. The Titans have crowded the line of scrimmage against Jackson in previous meetings but have blitzed on just 23.4% of dropbacks this season and rank 28th in pressures per dropback. They do have one of the league’s top interior pass rushers in Jeffery Simmons, so the Ravens will need a strong game from center Tyler Linderbaum. Tennessee’s edge rushers, on the other hand, will present less of a challenge to the Ravens’ tackles than Pittsburgh’s duo of Highsmith and T.J. Watt. In the secondary, cornerback Sean Murphy-Bunting has played well with three passes defended and two forced fumbles while his partner, Kristian Fulton, has struggled in coverage.
EDGE: Ravens
Titans passing game vs. Ravens pass defense
Quarterback Ryan Tannehill is off to a poor start with just two touchdown passes and five interceptions through five games. The Titans rank 30th in pass attempts, so they’re not looking to air it out. At age 31, DeAndre Hopkins (26 catches on 42 targets, 356 yards) remains one of the league’s top 20 wide receivers, but Tennessee doesn’t have much pass-catching talent to complement him. Tight end and former Maryland standout Chigoziem Okonkwo ranks next in the pecking order when it comes to targets but has averaged just 6.9 yards per catch. Wide receiver Treylon Burks, the team’s 2022 first-round pick, has missed the past two games with a knee injury but could play against the Ravens. Though he’s a big target, he has just one touchdown catch in his career.
The Ravens have exceeded expectations, ranking fourth in pass DVOA despite myriad injuries to their defensive backs and outside linebackers. Pro Bowl cornerback Marlon Humphrey played his first game of the season against the Steelers, tackling well but giving up the go-ahead touchdown catch to George Pickens. On a more concerning note, safety Marcus Williams struggled as he tried to play through the pectoral injury that had kept him out of the previous three games. Geno Stone has played well as a fill-in for Williams, so it will be interesting to see how coordinator Mike Macdonald balances their roles. In the absence of a dominant edge rusher, Macdonald has schemed up a pass rush by using linebackers Patrick Queen and Roquan Smith and almost all his defensive backs in creative combinations. The Steelers did exploit one of those blitzes on Pickett’s 41-yard touchdown, so there is a risk in playing this way. Outside linebackers Jadeveon Clowney, Kyle Van Noy and Malik Harrison have played well; they’re just not likely to pile up sacks.
EDGE: Ravens
Ravens running game vs. Titans run defense
The Ravens rank fourth in rushing but were unable to use their ground game to grind on Pittsburgh in the second half. Jackson (5.6 yards per carry, four touchdowns) is their top threat, but his running ability was a curious non-factor at critical stages of close losses to the Steelers and the Indianapolis Colts. Running back Justice Hill was on his way to a terrific game in Pittsburgh before his fumble at midfield cut short a promising drive. Gus Edwards has not been as efficient in coordinator Todd Monken’s offense as he was under Greg Roman, averaging a career-low 4.3 yards per carry.
The Titans defend the run better than the pass, allowing just 3.6 yards per carry, but they did not hold up against the Colts, letting Zack Moss run wild for 165 yards on 23 carries. Linebackers Azeez Al-Shaair and Jack Gibbens are solid against the run as are Tennessee’s safeties, but Simmons has been curiously ineffective on the interior. Will the Titans load the box to negate Jackson’s runs as they have in the past, or will they show more respect for his ability to beat them over the top?
EDGE: Even
Titans running game vs. Ravens run defense
The Titans used to rank with the Ravens among the league’s most committed running teams, but they have backed off the last two years, even though Derrick Henry remains formidable at age 29. He’s still the workhorse, averaging 17 carries a game with his yards per attempt at a career-low 3.8. Rookie third-round pick Tyjae Spears is an effective counterpoint, averaging 5.8 yards per carry.
The Titans love to bounce their backs outside, so the Ravens will need to avoid lapses in edge setting, which hurt them early in the season. Clowney’s strength against the run will be an important counter to Henry. They’ve been solid overall, limiting opponents to 3.6 yards per carry and ranking sixth in rush DVOA. Michael Pierce and Travis Jones have clogged interior running lanes, while Smith grades as the league’s top inside linebacker, according to Pro Football Focus.
EDGE: Ravens
Ravens special teams vs. Titans special teams
The Ravens rank 26th in special teams DVOA and committed another crucial error in Pittsburgh, allowing a blocked punt that resulted in a safety. Jordan Stout was good otherwise, dropping three of his four punts inside the Steelers’ 20-yard line. Justin Tucker hasn’t kicked much this year, making five of seven field goal attempts, with his misses coming from 59 and 61 yards.
The Titans rank fifth in special teams DVOA thanks to excellent work from kicker Nick Folk, who has made all 13 of his field goal attempts, three from beyond 50 yards. They’ve averaged a solid 10 yards on punt returns.
EDGE: Titans
Ravens intangibles vs. Titans intangibles
The Ravens knew they gave away a game they could have won by two touchdowns in Pittsburgh, squandering a chance to build a meaningful lead in the AFC North in the process. Now they’re in London, where they played one of their worst games in coach John Harbaugh’s 16-year tenure back in 2017. They’re spending the entire week overseas this time and seem unlikely to overlook the Titans after their failure in Pittsburgh. Jackson hasn’t lost two starts in a row since 2021.
Tennessee is still trying to win with part of the veteran core that gave the Ravens so much trouble in 2019 and 2020. Coach Mike Vrabel is one of the league’s best, with just one losing season — 7-10 last year — on his record, but his team has delivered some stinkers this year, including the loss to Indianapolis and a 27-3 bludgeoning at the hands of the Cleveland Browns.
EDGE: Ravens
Prediction
The Titans will be dangerous as long as Vrabel is their coach and veteran stars such as Henry and Hopkins are around to make plays. But they haven’t performed well offensively or defensively, and the Ravens are unlikely to undercut themselves as badly as they did in Pittsburgh. Jackson will be the best player on the field in his London debut, and that will be enough. Ravens 27, Titans 17
()